Dívida das Famílias, Crédito e Política Monetária / Household Debt, Credit and Monetary Policy
Resumen
O comportamento da situação financeira das famílias vem despertando grande interesse da sociedade e dos policymakers. Da sociedade em função dos seus efeitos no bem-estar das famílias. Dos policymakers em função da gestão da estabilidade financeira. O artigo buscou apresentar evidências empíricas sobre o comportamento do endividamento das famílias brasileiras frente a mudanças nas condições de crédito e na política monetária no período de março de 2005 a fevereiro de 2020. O presente trabalho preenche uma lacuna da literatura de finanças do Brasil ao estudar os determinantes da situação financeira das famílias brasileiras. Em particular, o trabalho associa política monetária e endividamento das famílias de uma maneira original. No estudo, foram utilizadas séries temporais. As técnicas econométricas empregadas para as estimações foram o método de mínimos quadrados ordinários, métodos generalizados de momentos (GMM) e o sistema de equações via System-GMM. Os resultados do artigo sugerem que a política monetária e as taxas de juros de crédito têm impacto misto sobre a dívida das famílias. Um aumento nas taxas de juros reduz o estoque da dívida, porém aumenta o comprometimento da renda das famílias. Esse resultado sugere uma dinâmica distinta entre o estoque e o fluxo da dívida das famílias, sendo essa a maior contribuição do trabalho.
Palavras-chaves: Endividamento das Famílias. Mercado de Crédito. Política Monetária
ABSTRACT
The behavior of families' financial situation has been arousing great interest from society and policymakers. On society in terms of its effects on the well-being of families. Of policymakers in terms of impacts on the management of financial stability. The article sought to present empirical evidence on the behavior of indebtedness of Brazilian families in the face of changes in credit conditions and monetary policy in the period from March 2005 to February 2020. The present work fills a gap in the Brazilian finance literature by studying the determinants of the financial situation of Brazilian families. In particular, the work associates monetary policy and household indebtedness originally. In the study, time series were used. The econometric techniques used for the estimations were the ordinary least squares method, generalized methods of moments (GMM), and the system equations via System-GMM. The results suggest that monetary policy and credit interest rates have a mixed impact on household debt. An increase in interest rates reduces the debt stock. However, it increases the commitment of household income. This result suggests a distinct dynamic between the stock and flow of household debt, which is the most significant contribution of work.
Results and contributions: The results suggest that monetary policy and credit interest rates have a mixed impact on household debt. An increase in interest rates reduces the debt stock. However, it increases the commitment of household income. This result suggests a distinct dynamic between the stock and flow of household debt, which is the most significant contribution of work;
Keywords: Household Debt. Credit Market and Monetary Policy
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12819/2022.19.10.2
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